VW's Bold Prediction: EVs Will Make Gas Cars as Obsolete as Horses

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Remember horses? Of course you do. But when was the last time you saw one trotting down your street on a Tuesday morning commute? According to a top Volkswagen executive, the internal combustion engine is about to face the exact same fate. In a recent interview, Martin Sander, VW’s board member for sales, marketing, and aftersales, dropped an interesting analogy. He suggested that once automakers successfully convince buyers to make the switch to electric, gas-powered cars will become an outdated relic, just like the horse and carriage.

The transition to electric vehicles has been bumpy, and Sander believes the auto industry's messaging is partly to blame. Instead of focusing on the tangible benefits of going electric, politicians and automakers have been aggressively highlighting upcoming bans on gas cars, such as the UK’s 2030 deadline. Sander argues this is the wrong approach entirely. He questioned how the industry expects to convince customers to adopt a new technology if the main talking point is simply the date when they will no longer be allowed to drive their current vehicles.

Rather than threatening drivers with a ban on the cars they have relied on for decades, Sander believes the focus needs to shift toward removing the barriers to entry. This means automakers and governments must work together to fix the charging infrastructure, as range anxiety remains a massive hurdle for new buyers. It also requires a concerted effort to lower energy prices so that electric vehicles become unequivocally cheaper to run than their gas counterparts. Finally, the industry needs to do a better job of selling the actual everyday advantages of EVs, such as the whisper-quiet ride, the instant torque, and the significantly lower maintenance costs. If these conditions are met, Volkswagen projects that by 2035, a mere three to five percent of customers will even want to buy a traditional gas-powered vehicle.

VW's strategy isn't happening in a vacuum. The company is aggressively expanding its electrified lineup in China, where it recently introduced the ID. Era 9X—a range-extender EV. However, don't expect that powertrain to cross over to Europe. VW has decided that European demand for range-extenders won't be strong enough to justify the investment.

What will transfer is expertise. Sander emphasized that everything VW learns in China will sharpen its competitive edge globally. "Everything we are learning in China will help us to be competitive in all the other markets around the globe where we are competing with the Chinese," he said. The focus is on scale, efficiency, and cost—the three pillars that will determine whether legacy automakers can survive the EV transition.

Ultimately, Volkswagen's underlying message is clear: the gas car isn't going to die because of a government mandate. It will die because the electric alternative will eventually become too good, and too convenient, to pass up.